Excellent, insightful analysis. One small criticism - "no actual evidence" is overstated, on your own account. If both Pakistan and North Korea stepped up their programmes following security threats, and ultimately acquired nuclear weapons, that is surely some evidence? And it is rational to argue that military threats incentivise the development of the ultimate military deterrent, even if, as you rightly argue, other incentives and strategic calculations are also in play.
Thanks - I've taken advantage of the internet to change "no" to little. Although the current situation is different to Pakistan and North Korea, who didn't develop their own program in response to a specific attack. Ironically the best argument in favor of the proposition might actually be the case of Israel, although that would require a separate piece in itself.
Excellent, insightful analysis. One small criticism - "no actual evidence" is overstated, on your own account. If both Pakistan and North Korea stepped up their programmes following security threats, and ultimately acquired nuclear weapons, that is surely some evidence? And it is rational to argue that military threats incentivise the development of the ultimate military deterrent, even if, as you rightly argue, other incentives and strategic calculations are also in play.
Thanks - I've taken advantage of the internet to change "no" to little. Although the current situation is different to Pakistan and North Korea, who didn't develop their own program in response to a specific attack. Ironically the best argument in favor of the proposition might actually be the case of Israel, although that would require a separate piece in itself.
https://open.substack.com/pub/lotusreborn/p/no-applause-yet-a-play-in-blood-and?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5oi70l