Which Ahmed al-Sharaa Are You?

Thoughts on the situation in Syria

1. According to reports, this week’s flare-up in Syria began with a gang of Bedouin robbing a Druze truck driver on the road between Damascus and Sweida, a mostly Druze city in the south of the country. These two groups have a history of hostility – struggling over control, land, drugs, and more. After a previous flare-up in April, it was agreed that the Syrian Army wouldn’t enter the city itself but would be stationed along the Damascus-Sweida road. When the fighting broke out, though, Damascus sent in its forces in violation of this agreement.

2. Extensive footage has emerged of government soldiers and security forces officials humiliating, shaving beards and moustaches (a traditional symbol of piety and respectability), abusing civilians, and executing Druze, including families. In one incident, at least 12 unarmed men and one woman were murdered in a wedding hall. The images of the forcible moustache cutting created obvious parallels among Israeli-Jews. In another video, a government soldier was filmed driving through Sweida laughing as he said: “We are on our way to distribute aid,” while brandishing a machete to the camera. He then filmed himself inside a house ripping a picture of Druze spiritual leaders off a wall and trampling it with his boots. “We are coming for you with sectarianism,” he said. In addition, Druze residents have accused government forces of looting and setting homes on fire.

3. Israel has said it will not allow the Syrian army to deploy in the south of the country (in Sweida and two other provinces), and that it will protect the Druze community from the Damascus government. Netanyahu has said that Israel is “working to save our Druze brothers.” In response to the Syrian army’s deployment to Sweida, Israel’s airstrikes targeted part of Syria’s defense ministry and near the presidential palace, killing one and injuring 18. An IDF spokesperson said that this was a message to President Ahmed al-Sharaa “regarding the events in Sweida.” Israel’s Druze citizens have called for action in defense of their coreligionists in Syria; hundreds of them broke through the border fence in the Golan to try to travel to Sweida, around 100 kilometers away.

4. At the time of writing, more than 350 people have been killed in Sweida province, including 69 Druze fighters and 40 civilians, 27 of whom were murdered in “summary executions…by members of the defense and interior ministries,” while 165 government forces and 18 Bedouin fighters have also been killed, as well as 15 members of the government’s security forces in Israeli strikes.

5. A ceasefire was achieved last night, brokered by the United States, with the Syrian Army withdrawing from Sweida and security forces from the Syrian Interior Ministry remaining. The deal appears fragile, with both sides maintaining armed positions.

6. In his speech following the ceasefire, Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa said that protecting the Druze citizens and their rights is “our priority” and that “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party. We are not among those who fear the war. We have spent our lives facing challenges and defending our people, but we have put the interests of the Syrians before chaos and destruction.” Regarding the atrocities committed against the Druze, he said earlier: “These criminal and illegal actions cannot be accepted under any circumstances and completely contradict the principles that the Syrian state is built on.” The Syrian interior ministry, meanwhile, has insisted that Sweida province must be integrated into the state and that the violence happened “in the absence of relevant official institutions.”

7. The Druze community itself is divided between militant and conciliatory factions, each with its own armed militias, complicating the notion of a simple Sunni-Druze dichotomy. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, for example, has called the government a collection of “armed gangs,” adding: “We…affirm the necessity of continuing legitimate self-defense and of fighting until every inch of our province is liberated from these gangs, without condition or compromise.” Negotiations with the government have until now failed to define their relationship with the new Syrian state. Another leader, Sheikh Yusuf Jerboaa, has said that he will work towards the full reintegration of the province into the Syrian state.

8. The Druze community are unsurprisingly suspicious of the new regime. In March, clashes between security forces and remnants of Bashar al-Assad’s regime resulted in more than 1,500 people being killed, most of them from the minority Alawite community. This included the mass slaughter of civilians. President Sharaa is from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate that is still designated as a terrorist organization by the UN and UK, but no longer by the US, which last month lifted sanctions on Syria. This Western legitimization stands in stark contrast to the continuing violence against minorities. The Druze are fiercely protective of their interests and are unconcerned with liberal pieties in securing them, as both Palestinians and Israelis will testify.

9. In addition to this week’s bombings, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes across Syria, destroying the country’s military assets in the aftermath of the fall of Assad’s regime. It has also sent troops into the UN-monitored demilitarized buffer zone between the Golan Heights and Syria, as well as several adjoining areas and the summit of Mount Hermon. The irony is that Israel strikes Syria more aggressively now under a supposedly Western-backed leader than it did under Assad, who was an ally of Iran.

10. President Sharaa presents a new kind of dilemma for Israel. Let’s call it the ‘Which Ahmed al-Sharaa are you?’ problem. Since taking control of Syria, al-Sharaa has successfully presented himself as either the ‘Centrist Dad’ or the ‘Deloitte consultant,’ with occasional dips into the ‘Zelenskyy cosplay’ cupboard, reaping the rewards with recognition from the West and President Trump praising him as a “young, attractive guy.” In doing so, he has made them forget about the ‘Fidel Castro/Islamic Militant’ personas. He has successfully distanced himself from the atrocities against the Alawites and the Druze, putting them down to recalcitrant forces who are not yet behind his program of building a new Syria.

11. On the other hand, there is no doubting his jihadi pedigree. Formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Julani (because he was born to a Syrian family from the Golan Heights), he fought for three years with al-Qaeda in Iraq, was imprisoned by the Americans between 2006 and 2011, and then created the al-Nusra Front in 2012 (with the support of al-Qaeda) to fight the Assad regime. He built a stronghold in the northwest Idlib Governorate; under his leadership the al-Nusra Front and allied groups committed suicide bombings, forced conversions, ethnic cleansing, and sectarian massacres. While he has now renounced jihadism against the West and vowed to protect Syria’s minorities, it is hard to view this as anything other than realpolitik.

12. While he continues to receive Western backing, though, in particular American backing, Israel will struggle to “unmask” him. Clearly al-Sharaa is no Zionist, but he is also no fool: he understands the constraints he faces, and he knows how to appeal to his benefactors. Whether or not he is directly responsible for the atrocities against the Druze, though, he will struggle to unite the country while also placating those in his regime who are clearly unwilling to wear the ‘Centrist Dad’ mask, particularly with Israel chomping at the bit, waiting to pounce. Despite Netanyahu’s rhetoric about the Druze, this is not the main issue; his greatest fear is the emergence of a strong, centralized unitary Syria that retains Western backing. This fear needs to be understood in the wider context of the Middle East: namely the fight against Islamist domination, whether its Sunni or Shia variety, with minorities like the Druze or the Jews forming the resistance. In this sense, there is a clear line connecting this week’s events in Sweida with those of October 7. Despite this, there has been speculation that the problem might be solved by some kind of agreement between Israel and Syria, maybe to be signed following a ceasefire in Gaza, although it seems unlikely that Syria will join the Abraham Accords. Ultimately, though, the final destination of this new Israeli-Syrian conflict will be determined by which Ahmed al-Sharaa the new Syrian president turns out to be.