Thoughts on the Ceasefire
Don't get carried away
1. The ceasefire deal that was announced last night is not, as some are claiming, the same as the deal from eight months ago. Crucially, as Jack Khoury writes in Haaretz, “Hamas backed down from its demand for a total end to the war and a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza at the time of signing.” This is why the Religious Zionism party wants the war to resume at the end of the first phase of the deal and has an alibi – at least for now – to remain in the government.
2. The problem with the deal is that, like the Oslo Accords, it postpones the crucial issues to a later phase. Most importantly: Who will rule Gaza when the war ends?
3. That we are still discussing this question represents the total failure of Netanyahu’s “total victory” policy. “Total victory” was always an empty slogan used by those who don’t seem to understand that war is politics by other means, and that the notion Israel would reoccupy Gaza and build new settlements there was always a fantasy. By not acknowledging this reality, they opened the door for a return to the pre-October 7 status quo.
4. The pre-October 7 status quo meant Hamas ruling in Gaza as the evil bogeyman, so Israel wouldn’t be forced into concessions in the West Bank. Netanyahu thought that Hamas leaders could be placated by suits of Qatari cash and the Palestinians could be ignored while he pursued normalization with Saudi Arabia without making concessions. October 7 proved what a terrible mistake this was, but we may yet see the policy making a comeback.
5. There is no alternative to some kind of Palestinian Authority involvement in Gaza. Those who fantasize about the Abraham Accord states getting involved in Gaza’s reconstruction need to understand that they won’t do so without some kind of roadmap to Palestinian independence, which has also – at least until now – been a sine qua non for the Saudis. Despite its obvious flaws, the collapse of the PA would be a disaster for Israel; the reoccupation of Areas A and B of the West Bank is a fantasy.
6. Those who say that, were it not for Smotrich et al, we could have signed this deal eight months ago, are wrong (see point 1). They also ignore the fact that, in the intervening months, Israel severely weakened Hezbollah and Assad fell from power, related events that have dealt a severe blow to Iran and its proxies.
7. The mistake, then, was in not pursuing a deal after Hezbollah were taken out of the game. That was the moment to leverage events to our advantage, by pushing for a new regime in Gaza and normalization with the Saudis. Netanyahu, though, preferred the survival of his terrible coalition.
8. Instead, he was forced into this deal by pressure from Trump, revealing once more that he is a terrible statesman who is buttressed by events while never steering them. Soon he may have to choose between Smotrich and the incoming president.
9. Meanwhile we have witnessed the first time in history that a people have celebrated the end of an alleged genocide as a “victory.” Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters have managed to find their uniforms amidst the rubble; children are corralled into declaring their allegiance to the dead Mohammed Deif. This is the latest manifestation of what Shany Mor calls the Palestinian tendency to oscillate “between ecstasy and amnesia.” It is a disastrous, suicidal way to think about the last 15 months, and makes a repeat in the future much more likely.
10. In Israel, meanwhile, millions of people continue to believe that we can both permanently subjugate the Palestinians and have a successful, flourishing country. They cite the example of the de-Nazification, but they do not really think the Palestinians can be reformed. They view violent Palestinian-Islamist rejectionism as a kind of permanent, metaphysical condition. But we will never be secure if we ignore the elephant in the room or think we can bomb it out of existence without articulating a better path.
11. For now, though, our attention turns to the imminent hostage release, which we hope goes smoothly, with more returning alive than dead. Like many others, I’ve been wondering about the fate of the Bibas family, particularly the youngest hostage, Kfir, who was only nine months old when he was kidnapped. There have been conflicting reports regarding the family’s fate; amidst the terrible events of the last fifteen months, their safe return would mark a rare – and frankly unexpected - moment of grace.
> The problem with the deal is that, like the Oslo Accords, it postpones the crucial issues to a later phase. Most importantly: Who will rule Gaza when the war ends?
Machiavelli notes that there are two ways to rule a territory populated by people with law and custom different from your own and hostile to your presence: a) military occupation, which is unproductive, costly in terms of both blood and treasure, and ultimately results in a net liability, or b) settle the territory with your own, who may make use of the land and serve as a garrison force to prevent uprising.
Israel seems to have at least partially followed Machiavelli's advice in Judea and Samaria while pursuing precisely the wrong approach in Gaza (since 2005) with predictable results.
The incoherence of Israeli policy stems from an inability of the state to perceive itself as a foreign occupier, which would necessarily refute the basic tenets of Zionist ideology. You can't simultaneously be the rightful inheritor of the land of your forefathers and also a foreign occupier; you have to pick one. The tragedy is that by sticking with the rightful inheritor narrative you cannot view the Palestinian narrative as anything but an illegitimate fairy tale, but by acknowledging the foreign occupier narrative you end up undermining your own legitimacy in the process.
My advice would be to either put up or shut up: Let your settler ideologues rebuild their homes in Gaza. Let them tend their vineyards and open their boutique goat cheese farms. Tax the proceeds and use the funds to sponsor Arabs who wish to seek asylum in a place more amenable to their worldview. If you think this is fantasy, I urge you to present a workable alternative in a post-7.10 world.
So would you support the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank of its Arab inhabitants, then? Or are you content to pose as a world-weary student of history, above the tedious fray?