In terms of the absolute population of cognitive elites, the birthrate among cognitive elites (even specifically among secular ones) is high enough to offset emigration. In terms of their percentage of the population, not so much, but then emigration isn't a major effect compared to birthrate on that anyway.
Right, birth rate of Haredim or conservative Muslims is a red herring because they won’t work in tech by choice. A quality immigrant is worth more than emigrating influencers, or Haredim or Substack writers.
Why haven’t you left the country? The brain drain damage would be tough, but I’m curious about your motivation to remain. All things considered, you hate Zionists, and Arabs, and most other people, so is it just your misanthrope requiring a relatively depopulated place to put distance between you and other humans? Why not the desert of Spain - empty, plenty of fellow people who wish a genocide of Israeli Jews. Win-win, no?
Of course, not every Charedi in Meah Shearim is going to draft tommorow, nor will most. But the fact that hundreds of people who are sociologically charedi and continue to be sociologically charedi, and have kids in the community are going to hi-tech units in the IDF and then the workforce is a meaningful societal trend
Many is a major overstatement. More women than men, and for both they’re far under the potential, considering the analytical skills they bring with them, and dedication to studying. There is a massive untapped potential there for Haredim to be a net economic growth generator instead of wasted as a net economic drain through voluntary unemployment.
Indeed Alex, I know many people in Hitech who have left Israel over the last two or three years due to the judicial reform balagan and the war. And they seem to be very happy living in England, the US, even Holland or Portugal.
But as you said, this is currently still a very low number in relative terms. So I am still not concerned that right now this is leading Israel on a path that will leave the country with a dearth of intelligent professionals. There still seem to be too many committed, Zionist Israelis for the minor increase in emigration to have much of an impact on the current trajectory of innovation and the resulting economic success.
Of course, I am not basing this on statistics, only on a general impression I get from living and working here. But from what I see and experience on a daily basis, there is no reason for concern just yet (as you wrote).
However, I think the upcoming 2026 election is absolutely crucial in many aspects, which definitely includes this one. If Netanyahu wins again and continues on his path of division, I can envisage a significant increase in the number of disillusioned Israelis who will say they have had enough and move away. How significant an increase and how much of an impact this will have on the economy and Israeli society remains to be seen.
In any case, as important as emigration is, the result of the 2026 general election will likely have many more, even more serious implications than whether we'll see an increase in the number of Israelis abandoning their homeland. Which is why the prospect of another Netanyahu-led coalition fills me with deep concern.
You kids with your deflection it's clearly a defective trait among so many 🤔 two statements/questions asked one vaguely addressed while not 😶
Mishigoss ferkakta nahrshkeit 🤗
It truly is a plague upon everyone but me and those who get it, statements and queries may include multiple angles statements and questions it is defective and deflective to appear to communicate yet be disengaged and non-communicative 🤔
It happens a lot whenever I bring up Moshe Feiglin vague deflections he can't he won't he wants to legalize he wants to kill all the Arabs he can't he won't let's bitch about netanyahu decades after Moshe Feiglin appears on the horizon with solutions 🤗
I double dare you to write an article explaining why he can't and won't be and who will be and is better 🤔
What would be the path of division that you proclaim netanyahu is and I will reask again besides Moshe Feiglin who can do it?
Brigitte Gabriel
@ACTBrigitte
Lebanon was the only Christian-majority nation in the Middle East.
It's where I was born.
We prided ourselves on inclusivity. Always welcoming Arab Muslim refugees from all over the Middle East.
We had the best economy despite having no natural oil. The best universities.
They called Beirut the "Paris of the Middle East" and the Mountains of Lebanon was a tourist destination.
My early childhood was idyllic, my father was a prosperous businessman in town and my mother was at home with me, an only child.
Slowly, the Arab Muslims began to become the majority in Lebanon and our rights began to wither away.
Soon, we would find ourselves unable to leave our small Christian town without fear of being stopped and killed by Arabs. In Lebanon your religion is on your government issued ID.
As the war intensified and the radical Islamists made their way south, my home was hit by an errant rocket and my life was forever changed.
We spent the next almost decade in a bomb shelter, scraping together pennies and eating dandelions and roots just to survive.
If it was not for Israel coming in and surrounding our town, I do not know If I would be here today.
Lebanon is now a country 100% controlled and run by Hezbollah. I lost my country of birth.
I thank God every single day I was able to immigrate to America and live out the dream that BILLIONS of people only dream of having.
Now here in America, my adopted country that I have come to love so much, I see the same threats and warning signs happening now that took place in Lebanon when I was a child.
This is my warning to you, America, reverse course now while you still can.
It's not too late to save our freedom and preserve it for the next generation.
Perhaps a rhetorical question: So why the one-sided hysteria at Kaplan’s outfit, whose guest writers (and he) reliably paint a very dystopic picture for the future American and European Jewry?
If he wants what is good for Israel at the expense of western countries, the net outward flux of Jews—especially of the young, elite human capital type—at present (however ephemeral) should concern him most of all. I guess that kind of analysis would just be off-brand for his Substack?
It's true. Like Gandhi, I have no idea how much it costs to keep me in poverty. I work as a programmer, paying Israeli taxes. I live on a hilltop which builds and maintains its own water infrastructure and roads, and produces its own electricity.
On the security front, IDF presence is extremely sparse here. The area used to be full of Bedouins. Now, due to the hilltops, they've left the whole area between Duma, Al Auja, Mughair,Baal Hatzor, Tayibe, Michmash...about 15x15km. One result is that the security threat to Kochav Hashachar, Rimonim, Michmash, Shilo has collapsed. Alon Highway is now safe, whereas just a few years ago I had to go there in the middle of the night to extract my brother in law, who had been ambushed by Bedouins on his way home, and this was not uncommon. All this cost the army and police practically nothing in man hours-sending a few soldiers or cops to a fight once or twice a week.
Not only that, but I spent most of this year in miluim, dealing with the results of the excellent performance of the security establishment for decades which we all saw on October 7th. So did many of my neighbors. Rather than us squatting here under the protection of the IDF, it's rather that we've established security here to the point that we can go and help the IDF in other areas.
Somehow, I guess we owe all this to disgruntled Lapid voters from Rishon. I don't know how that math maths, but it would probably be uncouth to ask for an explanation.
To the larger point of your article, you (purposely) conflate Jews and Israelis. Most "olim" for the last 20 years or more have been Soviet goyim. Most of them don't stick around, more so in the last couple of years. Most of the yordim have been seculars with no particular ideology or worldview, who wouldn't have reproduced much had they stayed here. The future of Israel lies with the religious and the dedicated. Any serious analysis would have been more granular.
A friend of mine who has a cattle farm in the hilltops said this to me as well, it seems to be a common attitude, but it’s hard for me to understand. The current situation allows for Jews to be in contact with only the least dangerous Arabs. No hilltop youth are fighting with Hamas militias in Jenin or Shechem. If the army were to leave, the entire Hamas and PA army would be free to attack the Jews here. Fighting them with clubs and even handguns is not an option. So would the plan be to have all the Kitot Konenut band together and fight the Arab army, which would only be a slight upgrade from what I’ve seen of them? Or would we be able to quickly procure heavy weapons from abroad to form our own army? I love the idea, but it really all depends on how willing the broad settler population is to join.
There are farms on the outskirts of Jericho, Shechem, Hebron.
Kitot konenut have MAGim. Drones would quickly become available. What else do you need to deal with Nukhbas? F-35s? Did those help on October 7th?
Btw, on that day, the places which had somewhat organized and armed kitot konenut survived. On average, a dozen armed Jews, not Sayeret Matkal commandos, without tons of planning and training, against hundreds of Nukhbas. Does that tell you something?
What you say is only partially true. They did defeat the major onslaught on their kibbutz, but without the army eventually somewhat getting its act together how long do you think they could have held out? We know what happened to communities in a similar situation in 1948.
Held out against what? The onslaught of Nukhbas with their heavy weapons (pickup trucks, machine guns, RPGs)? This shit doesn't exactly require tanks, although they're nice to have.
Communities in a similar situation in 1948 in the Negev broke the advance of the Egyptian army. But in any case there's no comparison, because there's no Jordanian Legion involved, technology has advanced and democratized, and the settlements are full of people with military training and experience.
It tells me that we can definitely fight hard, but every war has a cost. Currently, our strategy in Judea and Samaria relies on relying on the army to box in and clear out threats within the major cities while securing the areas around the cities. It's very far from perfect, but it's a definite improvement over what used to be. Without the army here we'd need to clear out Shechem, Jenin, Ramallah, Hebron, Tulkarm (am I missing any) via urban warfare without air superiority. I'm not sure just how professional the PA army is but they're definitely better equipped than the nukbas were. And this ignores the fact that practically if the army were to leave many kitat konenut members would as well. Ravshatz doesn't stand for independent thinker.
I don't have time to go through this in detail, will just say that the Arabs are not the Waffle SS, and that IS took Mosul with about a battalion, with some scary decapitation videos precipitating mass flight and the collapse of two divisions of the Iraqi Army with armor, helicopters, artillery.
Who cares what their jobs are? They are constantly attacked by a genocidal enemy who will move on to the next closest target if they leave, as we have seen on Oct 7 in case anyone doubted it; we should all be infinitely thankful for their willingness to be that closest target. I would love nothing more than to have these communities drenched in my tax money, which I don't think is happening since we're too stupid to understand even the basics of our situation
It is a good idea to donate to settlements, but I couldn't donate as much as I pay in taxes, since I only have 100% of money. I still don't understand your argument though
Anyone can make a donation to Shem Tov Luski here! If you doubt his herosim, he’s on video threatening Arabs with a club. Show him your support! I just gave 500 nis.
Also given the IDF presence is so sparse, and you are able to look after yourself as you describe, would you have any objections to the IDF withdrawing from the West Bank?
not ta state the obvious from a boid's eye view from AmeriKa... but...
if mah country (love aside...) suffered the worst attack / horror since WWII an' (puttin' it generously) bungled keepin' its own safe...
if mah country (love aside) dragged on in a war that continually killed mah fellow countrymen daily (our future fathers i.e. the IDF) & in a war that should've ended already (with fewer casualties!) if only mah leaders stopped listenin' ta the UN & DJT's "cautions" an' fergot all the "peace pauses" an' just got the job done...but didn't (b/c Bibi listens to the peanut gallery at his peril)..
then would I feel safe?
would I feel that mah nation has "my back?"....
might I just LEAVE ('specially if I had fambly) b/c Israel has become a lot LESS safe than it's ever been... ?
Might I not leave if mah nation saw whut it's like welcomin' the wolf inta the henhouse (i.e. all the Pallies that worked in Israel an' spied on their jooish "friends" givin' key info to HamAss?!)... an' STILL waffles & waivers 'bout what ta do 'bout these terrorists WHO they've now "given back" to HamAss? Released these murderers to live an'nuther day?!
An' whut about Iran? Again, we stopped after 12 days an' didn't finish the job--warrus interuptus...once more! So Iran kin rebuilt their nuclear whutsis an' live an'nuther day?
An' (this may 'er may not be an issue...) if mah country insty-tooted a 2-tier system not unlike the yellow star (of all ironies) such that those that got their "green pass" fer bein' compliant an' takin' their jabs but those that didn't were treated like camp joos an' locked down an' denied travel rights, entertainment rights--even skool kids denied eggzams--in a supposed "democratic" nation?!-- would that not be yet another strike against mah trust of my country to protect me an' treat me with dignity if I didn't comply with draconian arbitrary mandates?
Why leave? Mebbe....ALL of the above! None really stood out prior ta 10/7 but now?!
I don't care if yer right, left, center 'er not in any pahrty--I'm talkin' 'bout bodily safety an' livin' in a place that has not protected its own (much as I too have only love fer Israel).... an' likely this goes even well-beyond Bibi (I mean he had the likes of Ronan Bar & others pullin' out the rug from under 'im while he walked on it--heck they didn't even wake the PM up when HamAss attacked?!)...
Would you feel "safe" livin' in a nayshun now in a full-out eggsitential crisis?! (clearly fer the moment...yes, you do) Heck, I don't feel safe here in the USA but I still imagine I'm a lot safer here than in O Israel... that's GOTTA change ta keep folks from leavin'...
My 2 cents...
I might not stick around if everything looked a LOT more precarious than it once did....fergit protests, trials, fergit even Judea & Sumeria...the bigger view is that Israel is in crisis so some folks hunker down--others pack their bags (understandably)
Alex. Writing for two reasons.. to let you know that I’m writing a post supporting your analysis of emigration/ immigration which was excellent! Also my wife and I are very interested in a tour led by you.
Except that... the high birth rate is generally among a population group that is less likely to go into the types of technological and scientific fields we need for the future. Having a bunch of children who will grow up to either study Talmud or marry a yeshiva bocher and give birth to more of the same, isn't going to offset this brain drain.
Gush Etzion fell because its population was not well trained, well armed or well motivated, and they were fighting a well trained and supplied force, officered by British WW2 veteran officers. We wouldn't have those problems.
Once, perhaps not. But without an army to control the wider area, how would you remain supplied? You would be cut off from your hinterland and isolated.
Are you asking how supplies get through in these situations usually? You're in luck-I can speak both from personal experience and interviewing people who had fought in Bosnia, etc. Basically, you clear your main supply routes (in our case, significantly easier because almost all the hilltops are on MSRs or not far from them) and make arrangements with anyone whom you can't clear out. The way that the route to Jerusalem was cleared out was exactly like this, and the forces that cleared the main problematic Arab villages were about company-sized, not huge.
And for how many years would you manage this if the army relinquishes responsibility for the area? Are you basically saying you will just be able to conquer the entire West Bank yourselves?
Growing up in Israel with multiple citizenships meant that, over the years, many people asked me the same question: Why don’t you leave?
When I first heard it, I was genuinely confused. Leaving had never crossed my mind. My commitment to Israel and to what it stood for, to being part of this extraordinary Jewish enterprise of our time, was far more compelling than the idea of living a comfortable, quieter life somewhere else.
I know this isn’t a measurable metric, but the fact that I’ve begun to seriously consider leaving frightens me.
At a conference in 2016, someone asked me about the future of Israel. I must have been having a bad day, because I answered bluntly: Israel has no future. I went on to explain that by sheer inertia, the country was moving in a direction that made its long-term survival—at least as we understand it—impossible. Something extraordinary would have to happen to change course.
To be clear: Israel may continue to exist in name, but it will no longer resemble the Israel we thought we knew.
After the session, several people approached me, unhappy with my ominous assessment. I wondered if I had gone too far. Then I reminded myself that I was in good company.
Years earlier, at an OU conference in New York, Rabbi Yoel Bin-Nun was asked a similar question. He answered with an image: Israel is like a bus speeding toward a cliff. Some insist it must turn left, others right. Because they cannot agree, the bus continues straight—and is therefore destined to go over the edge. There is a theoretical hope that compromise will emerge in time. But history suggests a darker likelihood: people change only once it is already too late.
For years, we used this parable at the Jewish Agency to provoke thought—unfortunately, mostly among Diaspora Jews rather than Israelis themselves. Even then, we never imagined that the “too late” moment would arrive in our lifetime. We lived on the hope that something would shift.
Rabbi Bin-Nun, however, did not believe in hope. Faced with the knowledge that compromise may be impossible, he argued that we are left with only two options: to leave and build a life elsewhere, or—perhaps out of solidarity with one another—to stay on the bus and go down together.
In a recent podcast (on Haredim) Haviv Rettig Gur said, “I’m optimistic that there’ll be a catastrophe.” He was referring to his notion that, in Israel, things don’t get fixed until after they crash and burn. The same with emigration: we’ll fix it when we’re on the edge of the abyss. Actually, if we fix the Haredi problem - if they start educating for productive jobs - we won’t have an emigration problem.
What are they thinking? With the west becoming islamized and Jew-hatred running rampant, how on earth do Israelis think they would be better off outside of Israel?
In 2024 about 15 percent were those who moved her during the previous five years. Hard to know how many olim were among the remainder but probably less than half.
The birthrate doesn't really offset the brain-drain issue. Depending on your social model, it might make it worse.
Good point.
In terms of the absolute population of cognitive elites, the birthrate among cognitive elites (even specifically among secular ones) is high enough to offset emigration. In terms of their percentage of the population, not so much, but then emigration isn't a major effect compared to birthrate on that anyway.
Right, birth rate of Haredim or conservative Muslims is a red herring because they won’t work in tech by choice. A quality immigrant is worth more than emigrating influencers, or Haredim or Substack writers.
Why haven’t you left the country? The brain drain damage would be tough, but I’m curious about your motivation to remain. All things considered, you hate Zionists, and Arabs, and most other people, so is it just your misanthrope requiring a relatively depopulated place to put distance between you and other humans? Why not the desert of Spain - empty, plenty of fellow people who wish a genocide of Israeli Jews. Win-win, no?
Arrr Bee — many Haredim work in tech and their number is only growing
cope
Do you live in Israel? If so where?
Are you Charedi? If so, which community do you belong to?
How many Charedim do you personally know?
What can you share about תכנית קדקד?
https://kodcode.org.il/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic
Do you work in Israeli hi-tech?
Of course, not every Charedi in Meah Shearim is going to draft tommorow, nor will most. But the fact that hundreds of people who are sociologically charedi and continue to be sociologically charedi, and have kids in the community are going to hi-tech units in the IDF and then the workforce is a meaningful societal trend
For context, I'm American born, "black and white Chabad" currently living in the Meah Shearim area, but a long term Judea and Samaria dweller.
Many is a major overstatement. More women than men, and for both they’re far under the potential, considering the analytical skills they bring with them, and dedication to studying. There is a massive untapped potential there for Haredim to be a net economic growth generator instead of wasted as a net economic drain through voluntary unemployment.
Emm
Do you live in Israel Arr bee
Do you have first hand contact with Charedi communities?
Indeed Alex, I know many people in Hitech who have left Israel over the last two or three years due to the judicial reform balagan and the war. And they seem to be very happy living in England, the US, even Holland or Portugal.
But as you said, this is currently still a very low number in relative terms. So I am still not concerned that right now this is leading Israel on a path that will leave the country with a dearth of intelligent professionals. There still seem to be too many committed, Zionist Israelis for the minor increase in emigration to have much of an impact on the current trajectory of innovation and the resulting economic success.
Of course, I am not basing this on statistics, only on a general impression I get from living and working here. But from what I see and experience on a daily basis, there is no reason for concern just yet (as you wrote).
However, I think the upcoming 2026 election is absolutely crucial in many aspects, which definitely includes this one. If Netanyahu wins again and continues on his path of division, I can envisage a significant increase in the number of disillusioned Israelis who will say they have had enough and move away. How significant an increase and how much of an impact this will have on the economy and Israeli society remains to be seen.
In any case, as important as emigration is, the result of the 2026 general election will likely have many more, even more serious implications than whether we'll see an increase in the number of Israelis abandoning their homeland. Which is why the prospect of another Netanyahu-led coalition fills me with deep concern.
Who do you envision as best PM going forward ?
Moshe Feiglin is the only option I can see
Feiglin isn’t going to be the prime minister of Israel though.
You kids with your deflection it's clearly a defective trait among so many 🤔 two statements/questions asked one vaguely addressed while not 😶
Mishigoss ferkakta nahrshkeit 🤗
It truly is a plague upon everyone but me and those who get it, statements and queries may include multiple angles statements and questions it is defective and deflective to appear to communicate yet be disengaged and non-communicative 🤔
It happens a lot whenever I bring up Moshe Feiglin vague deflections he can't he won't he wants to legalize he wants to kill all the Arabs he can't he won't let's bitch about netanyahu decades after Moshe Feiglin appears on the horizon with solutions 🤗
I double dare you to write an article explaining why he can't and won't be and who will be and is better 🤔
I’ll bet you a thousand pounds that he won’t be Israel’s next prime minister.
Said the defective 🤥 Brit deflectively avoiding the question yet again 😖🤔
I think Bennett is the best available candidate who actually has a chance of being prime minister (if that’s the question you think I’m avoiding).
Yes - the next election will definitely be crucial.
What would be the path of division that you proclaim netanyahu is and I will reask again besides Moshe Feiglin who can do it?
Brigitte Gabriel
@ACTBrigitte
Lebanon was the only Christian-majority nation in the Middle East.
It's where I was born.
We prided ourselves on inclusivity. Always welcoming Arab Muslim refugees from all over the Middle East.
We had the best economy despite having no natural oil. The best universities.
They called Beirut the "Paris of the Middle East" and the Mountains of Lebanon was a tourist destination.
My early childhood was idyllic, my father was a prosperous businessman in town and my mother was at home with me, an only child.
Slowly, the Arab Muslims began to become the majority in Lebanon and our rights began to wither away.
Soon, we would find ourselves unable to leave our small Christian town without fear of being stopped and killed by Arabs. In Lebanon your religion is on your government issued ID.
As the war intensified and the radical Islamists made their way south, my home was hit by an errant rocket and my life was forever changed.
We spent the next almost decade in a bomb shelter, scraping together pennies and eating dandelions and roots just to survive.
If it was not for Israel coming in and surrounding our town, I do not know If I would be here today.
Lebanon is now a country 100% controlled and run by Hezbollah. I lost my country of birth.
I thank God every single day I was able to immigrate to America and live out the dream that BILLIONS of people only dream of having.
Now here in America, my adopted country that I have come to love so much, I see the same threats and warning signs happening now that took place in Lebanon when I was a child.
This is my warning to you, America, reverse course now while you still can.
It's not too late to save our freedom and preserve it for the next generation.
Perhaps a rhetorical question: So why the one-sided hysteria at Kaplan’s outfit, whose guest writers (and he) reliably paint a very dystopic picture for the future American and European Jewry?
If he wants what is good for Israel at the expense of western countries, the net outward flux of Jews—especially of the young, elite human capital type—at present (however ephemeral) should concern him most of all. I guess that kind of analysis would just be off-brand for his Substack?
You answered your own question :)
Thanks for sharing. You've inspired me to finish up and publish my very own yeridah post.
https://salmonofdoubt.substack.com/p/descending
Always happy to inspire!
It's true. Like Gandhi, I have no idea how much it costs to keep me in poverty. I work as a programmer, paying Israeli taxes. I live on a hilltop which builds and maintains its own water infrastructure and roads, and produces its own electricity.
On the security front, IDF presence is extremely sparse here. The area used to be full of Bedouins. Now, due to the hilltops, they've left the whole area between Duma, Al Auja, Mughair,Baal Hatzor, Tayibe, Michmash...about 15x15km. One result is that the security threat to Kochav Hashachar, Rimonim, Michmash, Shilo has collapsed. Alon Highway is now safe, whereas just a few years ago I had to go there in the middle of the night to extract my brother in law, who had been ambushed by Bedouins on his way home, and this was not uncommon. All this cost the army and police practically nothing in man hours-sending a few soldiers or cops to a fight once or twice a week.
Not only that, but I spent most of this year in miluim, dealing with the results of the excellent performance of the security establishment for decades which we all saw on October 7th. So did many of my neighbors. Rather than us squatting here under the protection of the IDF, it's rather that we've established security here to the point that we can go and help the IDF in other areas.
Somehow, I guess we owe all this to disgruntled Lapid voters from Rishon. I don't know how that math maths, but it would probably be uncouth to ask for an explanation.
To the larger point of your article, you (purposely) conflate Jews and Israelis. Most "olim" for the last 20 years or more have been Soviet goyim. Most of them don't stick around, more so in the last couple of years. Most of the yordim have been seculars with no particular ideology or worldview, who wouldn't have reproduced much had they stayed here. The future of Israel lies with the religious and the dedicated. Any serious analysis would have been more granular.
Are most people in your community employed in programming? What's the breakdown of what they do for a living?
Most people work in construction and construction-adjacent trades.
I would LOVE for the IDF to leave. We would solve this conflict in a month.
A friend of mine who has a cattle farm in the hilltops said this to me as well, it seems to be a common attitude, but it’s hard for me to understand. The current situation allows for Jews to be in contact with only the least dangerous Arabs. No hilltop youth are fighting with Hamas militias in Jenin or Shechem. If the army were to leave, the entire Hamas and PA army would be free to attack the Jews here. Fighting them with clubs and even handguns is not an option. So would the plan be to have all the Kitot Konenut band together and fight the Arab army, which would only be a slight upgrade from what I’ve seen of them? Or would we be able to quickly procure heavy weapons from abroad to form our own army? I love the idea, but it really all depends on how willing the broad settler population is to join.
There are farms on the outskirts of Jericho, Shechem, Hebron.
Kitot konenut have MAGim. Drones would quickly become available. What else do you need to deal with Nukhbas? F-35s? Did those help on October 7th?
Btw, on that day, the places which had somewhat organized and armed kitot konenut survived. On average, a dozen armed Jews, not Sayeret Matkal commandos, without tons of planning and training, against hundreds of Nukhbas. Does that tell you something?
What you say is only partially true. They did defeat the major onslaught on their kibbutz, but without the army eventually somewhat getting its act together how long do you think they could have held out? We know what happened to communities in a similar situation in 1948.
Held out against what? The onslaught of Nukhbas with their heavy weapons (pickup trucks, machine guns, RPGs)? This shit doesn't exactly require tanks, although they're nice to have.
Communities in a similar situation in 1948 in the Negev broke the advance of the Egyptian army. But in any case there's no comparison, because there's no Jordanian Legion involved, technology has advanced and democratized, and the settlements are full of people with military training and experience.
It tells me that we can definitely fight hard, but every war has a cost. Currently, our strategy in Judea and Samaria relies on relying on the army to box in and clear out threats within the major cities while securing the areas around the cities. It's very far from perfect, but it's a definite improvement over what used to be. Without the army here we'd need to clear out Shechem, Jenin, Ramallah, Hebron, Tulkarm (am I missing any) via urban warfare without air superiority. I'm not sure just how professional the PA army is but they're definitely better equipped than the nukbas were. And this ignores the fact that practically if the army were to leave many kitat konenut members would as well. Ravshatz doesn't stand for independent thinker.
I don't have time to go through this in detail, will just say that the Arabs are not the Waffle SS, and that IS took Mosul with about a battalion, with some scary decapitation videos precipitating mass flight and the collapse of two divisions of the Iraqi Army with armor, helicopters, artillery.
Who cares what their jobs are? They are constantly attacked by a genocidal enemy who will move on to the next closest target if they leave, as we have seen on Oct 7 in case anyone doubted it; we should all be infinitely thankful for their willingness to be that closest target. I would love nothing more than to have these communities drenched in my tax money, which I don't think is happening since we're too stupid to understand even the basics of our situation
You should get in touch with Baruch so you can make a donation.
It is a good idea to donate to settlements, but I couldn't donate as much as I pay in taxes, since I only have 100% of money. I still don't understand your argument though
https://givechak.co.il/89702?ref=sr
Anyone can make a donation to Shem Tov Luski here! If you doubt his herosim, he’s on video threatening Arabs with a club. Show him your support! I just gave 500 nis.
Also given the IDF presence is so sparse, and you are able to look after yourself as you describe, would you have any objections to the IDF withdrawing from the West Bank?
Like they did from the Gaza border communities? Of course Baruch would object. We all would, including you, correct? You win the argument, Alex.
Well his whole argument was that he wouldn’t object as he and his friends would then find it easier to conquer the West Bank.
I think he got carried away by his own rhetoric. Easy to do these days.
not ta state the obvious from a boid's eye view from AmeriKa... but...
if mah country (love aside...) suffered the worst attack / horror since WWII an' (puttin' it generously) bungled keepin' its own safe...
if mah country (love aside) dragged on in a war that continually killed mah fellow countrymen daily (our future fathers i.e. the IDF) & in a war that should've ended already (with fewer casualties!) if only mah leaders stopped listenin' ta the UN & DJT's "cautions" an' fergot all the "peace pauses" an' just got the job done...but didn't (b/c Bibi listens to the peanut gallery at his peril)..
then would I feel safe?
would I feel that mah nation has "my back?"....
might I just LEAVE ('specially if I had fambly) b/c Israel has become a lot LESS safe than it's ever been... ?
Might I not leave if mah nation saw whut it's like welcomin' the wolf inta the henhouse (i.e. all the Pallies that worked in Israel an' spied on their jooish "friends" givin' key info to HamAss?!)... an' STILL waffles & waivers 'bout what ta do 'bout these terrorists WHO they've now "given back" to HamAss? Released these murderers to live an'nuther day?!
An' whut about Iran? Again, we stopped after 12 days an' didn't finish the job--warrus interuptus...once more! So Iran kin rebuilt their nuclear whutsis an' live an'nuther day?
An' (this may 'er may not be an issue...) if mah country insty-tooted a 2-tier system not unlike the yellow star (of all ironies) such that those that got their "green pass" fer bein' compliant an' takin' their jabs but those that didn't were treated like camp joos an' locked down an' denied travel rights, entertainment rights--even skool kids denied eggzams--in a supposed "democratic" nation?!-- would that not be yet another strike against mah trust of my country to protect me an' treat me with dignity if I didn't comply with draconian arbitrary mandates?
Why leave? Mebbe....ALL of the above! None really stood out prior ta 10/7 but now?!
I don't care if yer right, left, center 'er not in any pahrty--I'm talkin' 'bout bodily safety an' livin' in a place that has not protected its own (much as I too have only love fer Israel).... an' likely this goes even well-beyond Bibi (I mean he had the likes of Ronan Bar & others pullin' out the rug from under 'im while he walked on it--heck they didn't even wake the PM up when HamAss attacked?!)...
Would you feel "safe" livin' in a nayshun now in a full-out eggsitential crisis?! (clearly fer the moment...yes, you do) Heck, I don't feel safe here in the USA but I still imagine I'm a lot safer here than in O Israel... that's GOTTA change ta keep folks from leavin'...
My 2 cents...
I might not stick around if everything looked a LOT more precarious than it once did....fergit protests, trials, fergit even Judea & Sumeria...the bigger view is that Israel is in crisis so some folks hunker down--others pack their bags (understandably)
Alex. Writing for two reasons.. to let you know that I’m writing a post supporting your analysis of emigration/ immigration which was excellent! Also my wife and I are very interested in a tour led by you.
Thanks Bob - I’d love to guide you. Can you send me a dm or email?
Yes. 👍🏼
Except that... the high birth rate is generally among a population group that is less likely to go into the types of technological and scientific fields we need for the future. Having a bunch of children who will grow up to either study Talmud or marry a yeshiva bocher and give birth to more of the same, isn't going to offset this brain drain.
Gush Etzion fell because its population was not well trained, well armed or well motivated, and they were fighting a well trained and supplied force, officered by British WW2 veteran officers. We wouldn't have those problems.
Once, perhaps not. But without an army to control the wider area, how would you remain supplied? You would be cut off from your hinterland and isolated.
Are you asking how supplies get through in these situations usually? You're in luck-I can speak both from personal experience and interviewing people who had fought in Bosnia, etc. Basically, you clear your main supply routes (in our case, significantly easier because almost all the hilltops are on MSRs or not far from them) and make arrangements with anyone whom you can't clear out. The way that the route to Jerusalem was cleared out was exactly like this, and the forces that cleared the main problematic Arab villages were about company-sized, not huge.
And for how many years would you manage this if the army relinquishes responsibility for the area? Are you basically saying you will just be able to conquer the entire West Bank yourselves?
Yeah, basically
Thank you for highlighting this important issue.
Insightful and worrisome. Thank you.
Growing up in Israel with multiple citizenships meant that, over the years, many people asked me the same question: Why don’t you leave?
When I first heard it, I was genuinely confused. Leaving had never crossed my mind. My commitment to Israel and to what it stood for, to being part of this extraordinary Jewish enterprise of our time, was far more compelling than the idea of living a comfortable, quieter life somewhere else.
I know this isn’t a measurable metric, but the fact that I’ve begun to seriously consider leaving frightens me.
At a conference in 2016, someone asked me about the future of Israel. I must have been having a bad day, because I answered bluntly: Israel has no future. I went on to explain that by sheer inertia, the country was moving in a direction that made its long-term survival—at least as we understand it—impossible. Something extraordinary would have to happen to change course.
To be clear: Israel may continue to exist in name, but it will no longer resemble the Israel we thought we knew.
After the session, several people approached me, unhappy with my ominous assessment. I wondered if I had gone too far. Then I reminded myself that I was in good company.
Years earlier, at an OU conference in New York, Rabbi Yoel Bin-Nun was asked a similar question. He answered with an image: Israel is like a bus speeding toward a cliff. Some insist it must turn left, others right. Because they cannot agree, the bus continues straight—and is therefore destined to go over the edge. There is a theoretical hope that compromise will emerge in time. But history suggests a darker likelihood: people change only once it is already too late.
For years, we used this parable at the Jewish Agency to provoke thought—unfortunately, mostly among Diaspora Jews rather than Israelis themselves. Even then, we never imagined that the “too late” moment would arrive in our lifetime. We lived on the hope that something would shift.
Rabbi Bin-Nun, however, did not believe in hope. Faced with the knowledge that compromise may be impossible, he argued that we are left with only two options: to leave and build a life elsewhere, or—perhaps out of solidarity with one another—to stay on the bus and go down together.
I think we are now standing at that moment.
In a recent podcast (on Haredim) Haviv Rettig Gur said, “I’m optimistic that there’ll be a catastrophe.” He was referring to his notion that, in Israel, things don’t get fixed until after they crash and burn. The same with emigration: we’ll fix it when we’re on the edge of the abyss. Actually, if we fix the Haredi problem - if they start educating for productive jobs - we won’t have an emigration problem.
What are they thinking? With the west becoming islamized and Jew-hatred running rampant, how on earth do Israelis think they would be better off outside of Israel?
Do you live in Israel?
No
How many were initially immigrants who decided to move back to their countries of origin?
In 2024 about 15 percent were those who moved her during the previous five years. Hard to know how many olim were among the remainder but probably less than half.